Beliefs and intuition are often seen as having no role to play in the cold, hard, logical domain of science. But Dr Ben Vincent will argue that in our uncertain world, this is dead wrong. Science is in the business of telling us how much we should believe in different ideas. In fact, a 16th century Presbytarian minister, Thomas Bayes, laid down a simple yet powerful framework of how we should update our beliefs in the light of new evidence. Bayesianism has lied dormant for a few hundred years, but as it awakens, we can see how laypeople are more scientific and scientists are more intuitive than we previously thought.